Moments after Garrett Hartley’s 40 yard field goal in overtime gave the New Orleans Saints a victory over the Minnesota Vikings, sportsbooks offshore and in Nevada had already posted the opening line on Superbowl 44 in Miami. The opening number had the Indianapolis Colts posted as a -3′ point favorite with the total set at 56. The current line is:
New Orleans Saints 56
Indianapolis Colts -5
Obviously, the early money has come in on the Colts and the ‘over’ but that’s what usually happens. Early betting in the Superbowl almost always is on the favorite and the ‘over’. This shouldn’t be considered a reflection of the ’smart money’ liking Indianapolis, rather the sharp players who *do* like the Colts know that the best price they’ll find is available at or immediately after the opening number is posted. Bettors who like the Saints are obviously better off waiting, as the Colts will very likely be bet up to -6 or higher before you start seeing some takeback on the Saints.
My kneejerk reaction is that the Colts are the right side here, but that’s subject to change upon more in depth analysis. We’ll have a full, in depth analysis of the Superbowl side and total prior to gametime. We’ll also have some theoretical advice on how to best bet the Superbowl side and total as well as the many prop bets offered on the big game. For years, the favored team won and covered with great regularity but that’s started to change in the past decade. Six of the last 10 Superbowls have been won outright or covered by the underdog, as have four of the last six.
I will suggest that if you like the Colts and/or the ‘Over’ that you’re probably better off finding the best price you can now and betting it. If you like the Saints and/or the ‘Under’ there’s no reason not to wait and see what happens with the line as you’ll almost certainly be able to find a better price.
source : http://www.sportsuntapped.com/superbowl-betting-line-posted-13693/
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